Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Lyman Good
Ben Saunders
77%
23%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
78"
33
Age
Δ 2y
36
21-7
Career record
Δ 17 pp
22-14-2
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Good: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Saunders: 12 sig / 0 TD
Lyman Good
Ben Saunders
45
Sig strikes landed
43
103
Sig strikes attempted
108
62
Total strikes landed
48
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
68s
Control time
49s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Lyman Good
"Cyborg"
21-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
Blue corner
L1
Ben Saunders
"Killa B"
22-14-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
11 fights · 5-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—