Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Karl Roberson
Jack Marshman
35%
65%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
9-7
Career record
Δ 11 pp
23-11
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Roberson: 34 sig / 2 TD ·
Marshman: 21 sig / 0 TD
Karl Roberson
Jack Marshman
26
Sig strikes landed
29
60
Sig strikes attempted
64
39
Total strikes landed
48
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
96s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Karl Roberson
"Baby K"
9-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
Blue corner
L1
Jack Marshman
"The Hammer"
23-11
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—