Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Te Edwards
Don Madge
48%
52%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
28
Age
Δ 0y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Edwards: 5 sig / 1 TD ·
Madge: 21 sig / 0 TD
Te Edwards
Don Madge
32
Sig strikes landed
37
64
Sig strikes attempted
79
45
Total strikes landed
56
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
140s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Te Edwards
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
Don Madge
"Magic Man"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28