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Prelims1 Featherweight

Calvin Kattar vs Chris Fishgold

UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith ·Avenir Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Calvin Kattar
Chris Fishgold
49% 51%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
31
Age
Δ 4y
26
L1
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Kattar: 24 sig / 0 TD · Fishgold: 20 sig / 1 TD
Calvin Kattar
Chris Fishgold
52
Sig strikes landed
45
123
Sig strikes attempted
104
68
Total strikes landed
59
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.1
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
52s
Control time
108s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Calvin Kattar

23-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
W UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
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W UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
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Blue corner

Chris Fishgold

0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26