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Prelims1 Lightweight

Thibault Gouti vs Nasrat Haqparast

UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith ·Avenir Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Thibault Gouti
Nasrat Haqparast
32% 68%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
32
Age
Δ 8y
23
12-6
Career record
Δ 9 pp
19-6
L1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gouti: 78 sig / 0 TD · Haqparast: 124 sig / 0 TD
Thibault Gouti
Nasrat Haqparast
37
Sig strikes landed
41
92
Sig strikes attempted
97
47
Total strikes landed
68
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.60
95s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
8%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Thibault Gouti

"GT"
12-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 5 fights · 1-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
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W UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
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L UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
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L UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
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L UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
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Blue corner
W1

Nasrat Haqparast

19-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
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