Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Alex Garcia
Court McGee
61%
39%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
31
Age
Δ 3y
34
15-7
Career record
Δ 8 pp
23-15
L1
Current streak
L2
9
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Garcia: 27 sig / 1 TD ·
McGee: 51 sig / 2 TD
Alex Garcia
Court McGee
42
Sig strikes landed
50
111
Sig strikes attempted
118
55
Total strikes landed
76
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.9
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
165s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alex Garcia
"The Dominican Nightmare"
15-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
W
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
Blue corner
L2
Court McGee
"The Crusher"
23-15
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
13 fights · 7-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—