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Gian Villante vs Ed Herman

UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith ·Avenir Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Gian Villante
Ed Herman
47% 53%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
77"
33
Age
Δ 5y
38
17-15
Career record
Δ 8 pp
27-17
L1
Current streak
L2
13
UFC fights in our DB
11

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Villante: 81 sig / 0 TD · Herman: 84 sig / 0 TD
Gian Villante
Ed Herman
50
Sig strikes landed
57
105
Sig strikes attempted
105
56
Total strikes landed
57
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
75s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Gian Villante

17-15
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 13 fights · 6-7
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—
Blue corner
L2

Ed Herman

"Short Fuse"
27-17 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database 11 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—
L UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
W UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
L UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—