Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Maurice Mitchell
Jordan Griffin
55%
45%
Why
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Mitchell: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Griffin: 14 sig / 0 TD
Maurice Mitchell
Jordan Griffin
34
Sig strikes landed
38
71
Sig strikes attempted
80
48
Total strikes landed
56
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
112s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Maurice Mitchell
"The AK Kid"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Jordan Griffin
"Native Psycho"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28