Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Ian Heinisch
Justin Sumter
64%
36%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 8"
80"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Heinisch: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Sumter: 5 sig / 1 TD
Ian Heinisch
Justin Sumter
34
Sig strikes landed
36
67
Sig strikes attempted
76
48
Total strikes landed
44
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
169s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ian Heinisch
"The Hurricane"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Justin Sumter
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29