Back to UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
Prelims1 Women's Bantamweight

Aspen Ladd vs Tonya Evinger

UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor ·T-Mobile Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Aspen Ladd
Tonya Evinger
69% 31%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
24
Age
Δ 14y
37
10-3
Career record
Δ 9 pp
19-9
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ladd: 50 sig / 0 TD · Evinger: 9 sig / 0 TD
Aspen Ladd
Tonya Evinger
39
Sig strikes landed
33
83
Sig strikes attempted
91
60
Total strikes landed
67
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
184s
Control time
164s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
28%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Aspen Ladd

10-3
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
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Blue corner
L1

Tonya Evinger

"Triple Threat"
19-9 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
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