Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Scott Holtzman
Alan Patrick
49%
51%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
35
Age
Δ 0y
35
15-6
Career record
Δ 9 pp
16-4
W2
Current streak
W3
6
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Holtzman: 73 sig / 1 TD ·
Patrick: 25 sig / 0 TD
Scott Holtzman
Alan Patrick
41
Sig strikes landed
35
74
Sig strikes attempted
79
64
Total strikes landed
58
1.1
Takedowns landed
2.6
3.0
Takedowns attempted
7.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
174s
Control time
258s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Scott Holtzman
"Hot Sauce"
15-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
L
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
L
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
Blue corner
W3
Alan Patrick
"Nuguette"
16-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—