Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Tony Ferguson
Anthony Pettis
59%
41%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
35
Age
Δ 3y
32
27-11
Career record
Δ 0 pp
25-10
W8
Current streak
W1
14
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Ferguson: 114 sig / 0 TD ·
Pettis: 45 sig / 0 TD
Tony Ferguson
Anthony Pettis
70
Sig strikes landed
55
138
Sig strikes attempted
123
84
Total strikes landed
65
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
0.6
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
69s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
27-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
14 fights · 13-1
Last 5
W
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
Blue corner
W1
Anthony Pettis
"Showtime"
25-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
14 fights · 8-6
Last 5
W
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
L
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—