Main
Light Heavyweight
Ovince Saint Preux vs Dominick Reyes
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Ovince Saint Preux
Dominick Reyes
47%
53%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 3"
77"
36
Age
Δ 7y
29
28-18
Career record
Δ 16 pp
17-5
W1
Current streak
W3
17
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Saint Preux: 38 sig / 1 TD ·
Reyes: 94 sig / 0 TD
Ovince Saint Preux
Dominick Reyes
22
Sig strikes landed
33
50
Sig strikes attempted
63
30
Total strikes landed
39
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
50s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
55%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ovince Saint Preux
28-18
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
17 fights · 11-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
W
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
Blue corner
W3
Dominick Reyes
"The Devastator"
17-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
W
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—