🏆 Title fight
Main
Lightweight
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Conor McGregor
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Conor McGregor
86%
14%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
30-0
Career record
Δ 21 pp
23-6
W8
Current streak
W2
10
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 4
Nurmagomedov: 70 sig / 3 TD ·
McGregor: 51 sig / 0 TD
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Conor McGregor
84
Sig strikes landed
57
164
Sig strikes attempted
127
129
Total strikes landed
78
4.2
Takedowns landed
0.1
10.4
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
551s
Control time
-2s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
50%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Khabib Nurmagomedov
"The Eagle"
30-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 10-0
Last 5
W
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
W
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
W
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
Blue corner
W2
Conor McGregor
"The Notorious"
23-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 9-1
Last 5
W
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
L
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—