Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gray Maynard
Nik Lentz
19%
81%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
39
Age
Δ 5y
34
14-7-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
30-13-2
W1
Current streak
L1
12
UFC fights in our DB
19
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Maynard: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Lentz: 75 sig / 2 TD
Gray Maynard
Nik Lentz
26
Sig strikes landed
45
70
Sig strikes attempted
84
41
Total strikes landed
71
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.9
3.0
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
155s
Control time
230s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Gray Maynard
14-7-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
12 fights · 5-6
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
Blue corner
L1
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
30-13-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
19 fights · 11-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
L
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
W
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—