Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Derrick Lewis
Alexander Volkov
20%
80%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
80"
34
Age
Δ 4y
30
30-13
Career record
Δ 9 pp
41-11
W2
Current streak
W4
14
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Lewis: 39 sig / 0 TD ·
Volkov: 121 sig / 1 TD
Derrick Lewis
Alexander Volkov
39
Sig strikes landed
59
82
Sig strikes attempted
81
45
Total strikes landed
73
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.6
Takedowns attempted
0.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
110s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
30-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
14 fights · 11-3
Last 5
W
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—
Blue corner
W4
Alexander Volkov
"Drago"
41-11
Career record
Height
79"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—