Main
Women's Strawweight
Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs Felice Herrig
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Felice Herrig
60%
40%
Why
62"
Reach
Δ 3"
65"
33
Age
Δ 1y
34
19-13
Career record
Δ 3 pp
14-11
W1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Waterson-Gomez: 76 sig / 0 TD ·
Herrig: 51 sig / 1 TD
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Felice Herrig
45
Sig strikes landed
41
98
Sig strikes attempted
108
73
Total strikes landed
69
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.6
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
108s
Control time
201s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
"The Karate Hottie"
19-13
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
Blue corner
L1
Felice Herrig
"Lil Bulldog"
14-11
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
W
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. T…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—