Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Sergio Pettis
Jussier Formiga
65%
35%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
25
Age
Δ 8y
34
19-5
Career record
Δ 4 pp
24-8
W1
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pettis: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Formiga: 18 sig / 2 TD
Sergio Pettis
Jussier Formiga
44
Sig strikes landed
31
114
Sig strikes attempted
83
66
Total strikes landed
46
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.3
Takedowns attempted
6.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
76s
Control time
214s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Sergio Pettis
19-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
Blue corner
W2
Jussier Formiga
24-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—