Prelims1
Welterweight
Geoff Neal vs Frank Camacho
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
·American Airlines Center
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Geoff Neal
Frank Camacho
50%
50%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
17-8
Career record
Δ 1 pp
22-11
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Neal: 59 sig / 0 TD ·
Camacho: 25 sig / 0 TD
Geoff Neal
Frank Camacho
60
Sig strikes landed
37
120
Sig strikes attempted
79
82
Total strikes landed
69
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.6
4.7
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
177s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Geoff Neal
"Handz of Steel"
17-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
Blue corner
L1
Frank Camacho
"The Crank"
22-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—