Main
Women's Strawweight
Jessica Andrade vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
·American Airlines Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jessica Andrade
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
79%
21%
Why
62"
Reach
Δ 2"
64"
27
Age
Δ 6y
33
27-15
Career record
Δ 1 pp
17-10
W2
Current streak
W2
13
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Andrade: 38 sig / 0 TD ·
Kowalkiewicz: 24 sig / 0 TD
Jessica Andrade
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
82
Sig strikes landed
63
171
Sig strikes attempted
157
108
Total strikes landed
77
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.7
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
201s
Control time
55s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Jessica Andrade
"Bate Estaca"
27-15
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs…
—
L
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. T…
—
W
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
Blue corner
W2
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
17-10
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
L
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
L
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—