Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Austin Vanderford
Angelo Trevino
66%
34%
Why
28
Age
Δ 3y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Vanderford: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Trevino: 40 sig / 0 TD
Austin Vanderford
Angelo Trevino
37
Sig strikes landed
34
76
Sig strikes attempted
73
55
Total strikes landed
44
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
170s
Control time
96s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Austin Vanderford
"The Gentleman"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
Angelo Trevino
"Baby Monsta"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
25