Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Edmen Shahbazyan
Antonio Jones
84%
16%
Why
21
Age
Δ 13y
33
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Shahbazyan: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Jones: 5 sig / 0 TD
Edmen Shahbazyan
Antonio Jones
41
Sig strikes landed
31
85
Sig strikes attempted
61
57
Total strikes landed
46
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
0.9
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.60
Knockdowns
0.20
125s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
55%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Edmen Shahbazyan
"The Golden Boy"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21
Blue corner
Antonio Jones
"Doomsday"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33