Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Anthony Adams
Chibwikem Onyenegecha
52%
48%
Why
30
Age
Δ 6y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Adams: 51 sig / 0 TD ·
Onyenegecha: 84 sig / 0 TD
Anthony Adams
Chibwikem Onyenegecha
34
Sig strikes landed
35
69
Sig strikes attempted
75
47
Total strikes landed
70
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
111s
Control time
151s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Anthony Adams
"Sugafoot"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Chibwikem Onyenegecha
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24