Prelims1
Welterweight
James Krause vs Warlley Alves
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick
·Pinnacle Bank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
James Krause
Warlley Alves
77%
23%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
32
Age
Δ 5y
28
29-9
Career record
Δ 10 pp
16-8
W4
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Krause: 59 sig / 0 TD ·
Alves: 28 sig / 1 TD
James Krause
Warlley Alves
53
Sig strikes landed
32
101
Sig strikes attempted
79
74
Total strikes landed
49
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.1
Takedowns attempted
5.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
135s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
James Krause
"The"
29-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
L
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
Blue corner
W2
Warlley Alves
16-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
L
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—