Main
Welterweight
Jake Ellenberger vs Bryan Barberena
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick
·Pinnacle Bank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Ellenberger
Bryan Barberena
70%
30%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
33
Age
Δ 4y
29
31-16
Career record
Δ 8 pp
18-13
L3
Current streak
L1
19
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ellenberger: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Barberena: 19 sig / 0 TD
Jake Ellenberger
Bryan Barberena
39
Sig strikes landed
45
76
Sig strikes attempted
84
46
Total strikes landed
65
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.3
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.60
107s
Control time
55s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
31-16
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
19 fights · 10-9
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
W
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
Blue corner
L1
Bryan Barberena
"Bam Bam"
18-13
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
L
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—