Main
Flyweight
John Moraga vs Deiveson Figueiredo
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick
·Pinnacle Bank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
John Moraga
Deiveson Figueiredo
33%
67%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
34
Age
Δ 4y
31
20-7
Career record
Δ 2 pp
26-7-1
W3
Current streak
W3
13
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Moraga: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Figueiredo: 29 sig / 2 TD
John Moraga
Deiveson Figueiredo
23
Sig strikes landed
37
57
Sig strikes attempted
76
35
Total strikes landed
52
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
92s
Control time
207s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
John Moraga
20-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
Blue corner
W3
Deiveson Figueiredo
"Deus da Guerra"
26-7-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—