Prelims1
Welterweight
Mickey Gall vs George Sullivan
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick
·Pinnacle Bank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Mickey Gall
George Sullivan
51%
49%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
27
Age
Δ 11y
38
7-8
Career record
Δ 21 pp
17-8
L1
Current streak
L2
4
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Gall: 0 sig / 1 TD ·
Sullivan: 0 sig / 0 TD
Mickey Gall
George Sullivan
28
Sig strikes landed
25
66
Sig strikes attempted
58
43
Total strikes landed
43
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.3
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
76s
Control time
184s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mickey Gall
7-8
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
W
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
W
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
Blue corner
L2
George Sullivan
"The Silencer"
17-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
L
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—