Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Drew Dober
Jon Tuck
78%
22%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
30
Age
Δ 4y
34
30-15
Career record
Δ 2 pp
11-5
W2
Current streak
W1
10
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dober: 60 sig / 2 TD ·
Tuck: 33 sig / 0 TD
Drew Dober
Jon Tuck
46
Sig strikes landed
33
102
Sig strikes attempted
89
62
Total strikes landed
44
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
150s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Drew Dober
30-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 5-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
W
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
L
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
W
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
Blue corner
W1
Jon Tuck
"Super Saiyan"
11-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber
—
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—