Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ryan Spann
Emiliano Sordi
68%
32%
Why
27
Age
Δ 0y
27
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Spann: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Sordi: 5 sig / 0 TD
Ryan Spann
Emiliano Sordi
34
Sig strikes landed
29
63
Sig strikes attempted
89
44
Total strikes landed
48
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
77s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ryan Spann
"Superman"
24-12
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DWCS 1.3
—
Blue corner
Emiliano Sordi
"He-Man"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27