Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Anthony Hernandez
Jordan Wright
72%
28%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
25
Age
Δ 2y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 1
Hernandez: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Wright: 2 sig / 0 TD
Anthony Hernandez
Jordan Wright
37
Sig strikes landed
36
75
Sig strikes attempted
77
53
Total strikes landed
49
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
144s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Anthony Hernandez
"Fluffy"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Jordan Wright
"The Beverly Hills Ninja"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27