Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Matt Sayles
Yazan Hajeh
58%
42%
Why
24
Age
Δ 2y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Sayles: 34 sig / 0 TD ·
Hajeh: 3 sig / 0 TD
Matt Sayles
Yazan Hajeh
34
Sig strikes landed
34
74
Sig strikes attempted
74
45
Total strikes landed
47
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.3
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
111s
Control time
149s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Matt Sayles
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
Blue corner
Yazan Hajeh
"Yazzle Dazzle"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26