Back to UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders
Prelims1 Heavyweight

Augusto Sakai vs Chase Sherman

UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders ·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Augusto Sakai
Chase Sherman
74% 26%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
27
Age
Δ 1y
29
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
6

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Sakai: 111 sig / 1 TD · Sherman: 79 sig / 0 TD
Augusto Sakai
Chase Sherman
53
Sig strikes landed
53
110
Sig strikes attempted
111
62
Total strikes landed
65
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.1
3.1
Takedowns attempted
0.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
136s
Control time
48s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
8%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Augusto Sakai

0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
L2

Chase Sherman

"The Vanilla Gorilla"
16-13
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
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