Prelims2
Welterweight
Sergio Moraes vs Ben Saunders
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Sergio Moraes
Ben Saunders
51%
49%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 6"
78"
36
Age
Δ 1y
35
15-6-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
23-13-2
W1
Current streak
W1
10
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Moraes: 2 sig / 2 TD ·
Saunders: 1 sig / 0 TD
Sergio Moraes
Ben Saunders
31
Sig strikes landed
31
72
Sig strikes attempted
72
47
Total strikes landed
41
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.8
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
150s
Control time
43s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Sergio Moraes
"The Panther"
15-6-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
10 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
D
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
Blue corner
W1
Ben Saunders
"Killa B"
23-13-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—