Prelims1
Lightweight
Charles Oliveira vs Christos Giagos
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Charles Oliveira
Christos Giagos
89%
11%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
29
Age
Δ 0y
29
38-11
Career record
Δ 17 pp
20-13
W1
Current streak
L1
20
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Oliveira: 28 sig / 2 TD ·
Giagos: 18 sig / 0 TD
Charles Oliveira
Christos Giagos
27
Sig strikes landed
23
45
Sig strikes attempted
48
46
Total strikes landed
42
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
144s
Control time
182s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
62%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
38-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
20 fights · 11-8
Last 5
W
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
Blue corner
L1
Christos Giagos
"The Spartan"
20-13
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
L
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—