Prelims1
Lightweight
Francisco Trinaldo vs Evan Dunham
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Francisco Trinaldo
Evan Dunham
76%
24%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
40
Age
Δ 3y
37
28-10
Career record
Δ 12 pp
18-10-1
L1
Current streak
L1
17
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Trinaldo: 28 sig / 0 TD ·
Dunham: 25 sig / 1 TD
Francisco Trinaldo
Evan Dunham
55
Sig strikes landed
60
119
Sig strikes attempted
140
70
Total strikes landed
82
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.0
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
101s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Francisco Trinaldo
"Massaranduba"
28-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
40
In our database
17 fights · 12-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
Blue corner
L1
Evan Dunham
18-10-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
17 fights · 9-7
Last 5
L
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
D
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—