Main
Welterweight
Alex Oliveira vs Carlo Pedersoli Jr.
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Alex Oliveira
Carlo Pedersoli Jr.
59%
41%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
31
Age
Δ 5y
25
23-12-1
Career record
Δ 16 pp
12-3
W1
Current streak
W1
12
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Oliveira: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Pedersoli Jr.: 2 sig / 0 TD
Alex Oliveira
Carlo Pedersoli Jr.
46
Sig strikes landed
37
109
Sig strikes attempted
106
60
Total strikes landed
57
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.1
5.9
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
224s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alex Oliveira
"Cowboy"
23-12-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
12 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
Blue corner
W1
Carlo Pedersoli Jr.
"Semento"
12-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. T…
—