Main
Light Heavyweight
Sam Alvey vs Rogerio Nogueira
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sam Alvey
Rogerio Nogueira
80%
20%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
75"
32
Age
Δ 10y
42
34-18-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
23-11
W2
Current streak
L1
15
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Alvey: 34 sig / 0 TD ·
Nogueira: 26 sig / 0 TD
Sam Alvey
Rogerio Nogueira
42
Sig strikes landed
35
95
Sig strikes attempted
70
45
Total strikes landed
33
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.2
0.5
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
38s
Control time
50s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
65%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Sam Alvey
"Smile'N"
34-18-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
15 fights · 10-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
Blue corner
L1
Rogerio Nogueira
"Minotouro"
23-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
42
In our database
9 fights · 4-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
L
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
L
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—