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Thiago Santos vs Eryk Anders

UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders ·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Thiago Santos
Eryk Anders
55% 45%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
35
Age
Δ 3y
31
23-11
Career record
Δ 0 pp
19-9
W1
Current streak
W1
15
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Santos: 100 sig / 1 TD · Anders: 32 sig / 6 TD
Thiago Santos
Eryk Anders
35
Sig strikes landed
38
75
Sig strikes attempted
77
42
Total strikes landed
52
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
39s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
62%
Submission
8%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Thiago Santos

"Marreta"
23-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 15 fights · 10-5
Last 5
W UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
W UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
Blue corner
W1

Eryk Anders

"Ya Boi"
19-9 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database 4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
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L UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—