Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Petr Yan
Jin Soo Son
75%
25%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
26
Age
Δ 0y
26
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Yan: 100 sig / 0 TD ·
Soo Son: 58 sig / 1 TD
Petr Yan
Jin Soo Son
40
Sig strikes landed
17
72
Sig strikes attempted
60
45
Total strikes landed
23
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.2
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
73s
Control time
51s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Petr Yan
"No Mercy"
21-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
Blue corner
Jin Soo Son
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26