Back to UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik
Main Welterweight

Aleksei Kunchenko vs Thiago Alves

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik ·Olympic Stadium
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Aleksei Kunchenko
Thiago Alves
80% 20%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
34
Age
Δ 1y
35
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
11

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kunchenko: 44 sig / 1 TD · Alves: 56 sig / 0 TD
Aleksei Kunchenko
Thiago Alves
44
Sig strikes landed
51
103
Sig strikes attempted
115
59
Total strikes landed
62
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.7
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
141s
Control time
57s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
8%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Aleksei Kunchenko

0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
Blue corner
L1

Thiago Alves

"Pitbull"
23-16
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 11 fights · 5-6
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
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W UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
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L UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
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L UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
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W UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
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