Back to UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik
Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Magomed Ankalaev vs Marcin Prachnio

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik ·Olympic Stadium
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Magomed Ankalaev
Marcin Prachnio
89% 11%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
26
Age
Δ 4y
30
21-3-1
Career record
Δ 21 pp
17-10
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ankalaev: 12 sig / 0 TD · Prachnio: 3 sig / 0 TD
Magomed Ankalaev
Marcin Prachnio
39
Sig strikes landed
27
78
Sig strikes attempted
53
83
Total strikes landed
48
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.7
4.3
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
282s
Control time
69s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Magomed Ankalaev

21-3-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
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Blue corner
L1

Marcin Prachnio

17-10
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
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