Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Greg Hardy
Austen Lane
53%
47%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 0"
80"
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hardy: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Lane: 5 sig / 0 TD
Greg Hardy
Austen Lane
32
Sig strikes landed
35
64
Sig strikes attempted
70
42
Total strikes landed
52
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
80s
Control time
145s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Greg Hardy
"Prince of War"
0-0
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Austen Lane
0-0
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31