Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chris Curtis
Sean Lally
83%
17%
Why
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Curtis: 84 sig / 0 TD ·
Lally: 62 sig / 0 TD
Chris Curtis
Sean Lally
39
Sig strikes landed
32
78
Sig strikes attempted
74
57
Total strikes landed
44
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
143s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Chris Curtis
"Action-Man"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Sean Lally
"The Unpredictable One"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28