Main
Lightweight
Alexander Hernandez vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
·Scotiabank Saddledome
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexander Hernandez
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
68%
32%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
26
Age
Δ 4y
29
19-9
Career record
Δ 3 pp
12-5
W1
Current streak
W4
1
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hernandez: 39 sig / 4 TD ·
Aubin-Mercier: 19 sig / 2 TD
Alexander Hernandez
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
26
Sig strikes landed
18
56
Sig strikes attempted
38
32
Total strikes landed
32
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
0.5
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
51s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
44%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alexander Hernandez
"El Gran Chango"
19-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
Blue corner
W4
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
"The Canadian Gangster"
12-5
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—