Main
Women's Strawweight
Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Tecia Pennington
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
·Scotiabank Saddledome
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Tecia Pennington
67%
33%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 5"
60"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
16-6
Career record
Δ 10 pp
15-9
L2
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Jedrzejczyk: 62 sig / 0 TD ·
Pennington: 33 sig / 0 TD
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Tecia Pennington
86
Sig strikes landed
69
207
Sig strikes attempted
161
114
Total strikes landed
90
0.5
Takedowns landed
2.2
1.3
Takedowns attempted
6.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
95s
Control time
203s
Method
Decision
82%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
16-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
L
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
L
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
Blue corner
L1
Tecia Pennington
"Tiny Tornado"
15-9
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
61"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
W
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. T…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—