Main
Featherweight
Jose Aldo vs Jeremy Stephens
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
·Scotiabank Saddledome
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jose Aldo
Jeremy Stephens
87%
13%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
32
Age
Δ 0y
32
32-11
Career record
Δ 18 pp
30-23
L2
Current streak
W3
11
UFC fights in our DB
20
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Aldo: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Stephens: 20 sig / 0 TD
Jose Aldo
Jeremy Stephens
65
Sig strikes landed
55
139
Sig strikes attempted
137
78
Total strikes landed
60
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.9
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
64s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Jose Aldo
32-11
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
L
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
Blue corner
W3
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
30-23
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
20 fights · 11-9
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—
W
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
L
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—