Prelims1
Lightweight
Kajan Johnson vs Islam Makhachev
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
·Scotiabank Saddledome
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kajan Johnson
Islam Makhachev
13%
87%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 5"
70"
34
Age
Δ 7y
27
24-13-1
Career record
Δ 34 pp
29-1
W4
Current streak
W3
5
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Johnson: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Makhachev: 7 sig / 1 TD
Kajan Johnson
Islam Makhachev
7
Sig strikes landed
23
25
Sig strikes attempted
42
24
Total strikes landed
44
0.0
Takedowns landed
2.1
0.4
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
55s
Control time
280s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Kajan Johnson
"Ragin'"
24-13-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—
W
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber
—
L
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
Blue corner
W3
Islam Makhachev
29-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
W
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
L
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—