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Prelims1 Featherweight

Hakeem Dawodu vs Austin Arnett

UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 ·Scotiabank Saddledome
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Hakeem Dawodu
Austin Arnett
52% 48%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
27
Age
Δ 0y
27
13-5-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
16-7
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dawodu: 75 sig / 0 TD · Arnett: 23 sig / 0 TD
Hakeem Dawodu
Austin Arnett
29
Sig strikes landed
30
54
Sig strikes attempted
64
47
Total strikes landed
56
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.1
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
338s
Control time
188s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Hakeem Dawodu

"Mean"
13-5-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
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Blue corner
L1

Austin Arnett

16-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
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