Back to UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
Prelims2 Flyweight

Dustin Ortiz vs Matheus Nicolau

UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 ·Scotiabank Saddledome
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Dustin Ortiz
Matheus Nicolau
38% 62%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 1"
66"
30
Age
Δ 4y
26
20-8
Career record
Δ 3 pp
20-6-1
W2
Current streak
W3
12
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ortiz: 8 sig / 0 TD · Nicolau: 7 sig / 0 TD
Dustin Ortiz
Matheus Nicolau
37
Sig strikes landed
50
98
Sig strikes attempted
101
52
Total strikes landed
69
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
6.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
144s
Control time
150s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Dustin Ortiz

20-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
W UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
W UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
L UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
Blue corner
W3

Matheus Nicolau

20-6-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
W The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—