Back to UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
Main Lightweight

Eddie Alvarez vs Dustin Poirier

UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 ·Scotiabank Saddledome

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Eddie Alvarez
Dustin Poirier
54% 46%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
34
Age
Δ 5y
30
30-6
Career record
Δ 8 pp
31-10
W1
Current streak
W3
7
UFC fights in our DB
20

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Alvarez: 26 sig / 0 TD · Poirier: 54 sig / 0 TD
Eddie Alvarez
Dustin Poirier
53
Sig strikes landed
63
133
Sig strikes attempted
144
73
Total strikes landed
87
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.7
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
142s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Eddie Alvarez

30-6 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 7 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
L UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
W UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
W UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
W UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
Blue corner
W3

Dustin Poirier

"The Diamond"
31-10 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 20 fights · 15-4
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
W UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
W UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
L UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
W UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2